eSports Betting - BLAST Premier: Global Final 2020 Odds Preview
In the world of CS:GO betting, there are two events in January that everyone has their eyes on: The European Champions Cup and the BLAST Premier: Global Final 2020. Since it technically starts first, let’s cover the BLAST Premier event.
Looking at the scope of the event, it is important to factor in which teams play best under this kind of pressure. It’s an eight team double elimination with a million dollar prize pool. And to crank up the heat just a bit more, it’s a top heavy prize distribution.
It isn’t ‘winner take all’, but it’s close. And as you seasoned eSports betting pros know, prize structures like this create high pressure situations. That means the winner of the BLAST Premier: Global Final 2020 is more likely to be a team that plays well in all or nothing environments. That’s where we’ll look for our EV.
BLAST Premier: Global Final 2020 Odds for CS:GO Betting
Let’s look at the eight teams competing for the million dollar prize pool at the BLAST Premier Final.
Astralis - World ranking: #1: Current odds on major sites - Between 6/4 and 89/50. As ‘in form’ as Astralis might be, giving them between 36% and 40% odds to win is a slap in the face. Everyone in this competition is top 16 in the world, and the world #2, #3, and #6 are all in it. They have the poise, they know how to play winner takes all CS:GO. I agree they’re the most likely team to win. But I wouldn’t lay a bet until I see a flat 2/1. eSports betting is a fickle thing when a difference of 3% keeps me from putting money down. But as it stands, this bet doesn’t cover the Vig.
Vitality - World ranking: #2: Current odds on major sites - 12/5. They beat Astralis at the Dreamhack Fall Open and their most recent match at BLAST Premier: Fall 2020. That win snapped their string of strong second place finishes, along with their big win at IEM Beijing-Haidian. Oh, and BLAST Fall? That’s a big, top heavy prize pool, where they took home $225k. HLTV actually has them as the team to beat, based on recent head to head matches. Still the betting companies have them at 29%? I’ll take those odds.
Natus Vincere - World ranking: #3: Current odds on major sites - Between 5/1 and 21/4. That’s 17% to win. And honestly, those odds seem about right. NV is a solid team with solid results, but they needed to trend up last month in preparation for the world finals in February, and instead trended down. Over the last few weeks they lost to Astralis twice and Vitality once. I don’t see them winning the BLAST Premier. If there was a decent prop bet that they finish exactly third or fourth, I’d consider that. But they’re a long shot to win, and I don’t see EV here.
FURIA eSports - World ranking: #6: Current odds on major sites - Between 7/1 and 15/2. Victims of bad timing. They have the perfect opportunity to compete as the favorites for a top heavy prize pool… and it’s happening just after this event, at Funspark ULTI 2020. 12% is about right for them, I think they’re going to be a bit overwhelmed. But if the order of these events was reversed and FURIA took down the Funspark tourney? I would have put them on par with NV with plenty of value on the table.
G2, Liquid, compLexity, and Evil Geniuses - World rankings #8, #10, #11, and #16: Current odds on major sites - 10/1 and lower. I don’t expect any big upsets. But I suppose it is a rarity to expect a big upset. If you want to take a little punt, I believe the worst bookie line out there is Team Liquid at 16/1. There might be some EV there beyond the Vig. I put them closer to 21/2. CS:GO betting gurus might agree, we’ll see.
Looking for extra action? If your favorite betting site lets you suggest accumulators and custom bets, here are a couple ideas:
Astralis and Vitality both reach the finals: I think it’s highly likely that these are our two finals teams at the BLAST Premier: Global Final 2020, and in fact I think in a lot of ways, that’s an easier prediction than the overall winner. If you have a chance to make that bet, it may be worthwhile depending on the line. Some of the bigger eSports betting establishments are open to taking on custom wagers.
Liquid places higher than Natus Vincere, Liquid placing exactly 4th, and Natus Vincere placing outside the top 4: If we think that Liquid is being undervalued and Natus Vincere is trending down, this is the most interesting and valuable accumulator to look at. Not that this is hugely likely to happen, but as the odds currently stand it has a ton of value. I would only play it if the lines hold where they are, and only as a punt. But what a punt! Hit this and your friends will call you a CS:GO betting master.
We’re looking at which teams are on form heading into the February CS:GO World Championship, and this is the last big test. The European Champions Cup is big, but regional. Funspark ULTI is valuable, but again, regional.
The important things to look for in eSports betting terms:
No roster changes. Zero. Nil. Not between now and mid February if the teams can help it. The boat’s direction is set and it’s too late to change direction. If you see a roster change, be very wary. Particularly with CS:GO betting, where the roster all working together seamlessly is so vital.
No distracting stories. These teams should be in the zone and nobody should be doing anything stupid or risky. Dumb media events are a sign of a lack of focus leading up to a world final. They’ll likely reflect in worse performances in every tournament between the disruptive event and the world finals.
I love where Vitality is sitting. If they win this one, I put them as favorites to run the board in February. That’s not to say that Astralis isn’t strong… just not as strong as the oddsmakers seem to think they are.