Eurovision odds first semi final
Semifinal 1: Which country wins?
Eurovision semi final 1
The Eurovision Song Contest will be held on Saturday May 18th 2019. The first semi-final takes place on Tuesday 14th May with the second semi-final following on Thursday 16th May. The 2019 song contest will be held in Israel, thanks to their victory at the 2018 Grand Final in Lisbon, Portugal. The city of Tel Aviv has be chosen to host the Song Contest.
Seventeen countries will participate in the first semi-final. Those countries plus France, Israel and Spain will vote in this semi-final. Ukraine was originally allocated to participate in the second half of the semi-final, but withdrew from the contest due to controversy within its national selection.
Ukraine were due to send an act to the 2019 contest in Israel, with Maruv winning a national contest. But after topping the vote, she stepped down due to a failure to agree with the national broadcaster on what she deemed to be a restrictive contract. “I am a musician, rather than a tool of the political stage,” she said. The second- and third-placed acts were then approached to take her place but both declined, leading Ukraine to pull out of this year’s contest altogether.
With the semi-final running orders published, semi-final 1 is perhaps the most open with only a few bright sparks from the likes of Cyprus and Greece, with Portugal and Iceland fighting for the alternative vote.
On first glance, this appears the more open of the two semi-finals. Australia is in the second half for the first time in history and Belgium breaks a run of first half draws. Greece and Cyprus are together for a fourth consecutive contest, Finland and Estonia may benefit from a vote exchange, and with Spain voting in this semi-final Portugal should stand to benefit. Poland, Belarus and Ukraine also historically swap votes.
This analysis spells disaster for Australia, Belgium and San Marino – only one of their top 5 common voters are able to vote for them! This suggests that this could be the year for Australia’s first ever non-qualifier in Eurovision. Particularly after last year’s massively disappointing televoting result in the final, it seems likely that it could happen…
San Marino has the lowest qualification rate in the last 5 years from the whole semi final1, which makes from this country, at least only statistically, least likely to qualify at this point.San Marino is closely followed by Belgium, Iceland and Georgia.
Even though, most fans sees Belgium and Iceland will easily qualify this year, while San Marino can make the top 10 of this semi final because Serhat will be the last to perform on Tuesday, which is an enourmous advantage.
The Danes have a decent recent Eurovision record, finishing in the top 10 six times since 2005, including a win in 2013. Lise Cabble co-wrote the winning song back in 2013, and she has also co-wrote “Love Is Forever”, this year’s entry. Another positive for the Danes is their semi-final draw, they have been drawn alongside their neighbours and generous votes Sweden and Norway.