Eurovision odds second semi final
Semifinal 2: Which country wins?
Eurovision semi final 2
KAN and the 2019 Eurovision host city Tel Aviv are happy and honoured to welcome the Eurovision Song Contest in May. Israel will have the honour of welcoming the Eurovision bandwagon with all its glitzy and glamourous razmatazz for the third time in Eurovision history, after having succesfully hosted the event twice in Jerusalem in 1979 and 1999.
Eighteen countries will participate in the second semi-final. Those countries plus Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom will vote in this semi-final. Switzerland was pre-drawn into this semi-final due to scheduling issues.
The second semi-final sees Switzerland drawn in the middle of a dire run of songs so will obviously stand out. It looks like Lundvik’s warm charm could cancel out Denmark’s clinical presentation. The second half of the semi brings us Russia, the Netherlands and decent slots for North Macedonia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia will have the honour of opening Semi-final 2, whilst Azerbaijan will be the last country to take the stage.
The second semi final of this year counts an important number of countries that have very strong qualification records – including a number of countries that have qualified from every semi final, bar one, since 2004 – Sweden, Romania, Russia and Azerbaijan – and a number of other countries that have qualified from most of the semi finals that they have taken part in (especially over the last ten years); Norway, Armenia and Denmark. Other countries, such as Austria, Moldova and The Netherlands, have enjoyed a run of good form in the contest in recent years.
This analysis of the common voters in the last years spells disaster for Armenia, the Netherlands and North Macedonia – only one of their top 5 common voters are able to vote for them!
However, Moldova, Norway, Romania and Switzerland all have 4 of their top 5 common voters able to vote for them. This is very promising for these countries. We could see Romania and Switzerland returning to the final.
Norway has shot up to be the most likely qualifier of Eurovision 2019. Given their 80% qualification rate over the last 5 years and the fact that 4 out of their top 5 common voters are able to vote for them, this is no real surprise. Norway just edges out Austria, Cyprus, Romania and Sweden for the top spot.
With their 0% qualification rate and only 1 common voter, North Macedonia are unfortunately the least likely to qualify from this semifinal at this point, statistically speaking. Poor North Macedonia have not qualified once in the last 5 years; their last qualification was way back in 2012 with Kaliopi’s Crno i Belo. North Macedonia is closely followed by Ireland and Armenia.
One of the countries suffering most from the semifinal allocation draw is the Netherlands. Only 1 of their common voters are able to vote for them. The Netherlands also has an 80% qualification rate over the last 5 years, after only not qualifying in 2015 with Trijntje Oosterhuis and Walk Along. But taking into consideration the betting odds, qualifying will not be a problem for this country.