2020 Presidential Election odds
Who Will Win US Presidential Elections 2020
The United States of America is presenting an image of a hot battleground at the movement with only 2 months left for the Presidential Elections 2020. There are three main candidates that are running the race which include, President Donald Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden. The most important question at the moment is who will win this race, and land in the Oval Office in November? Let us analyze the odds.
Only two months to go for the big race and right now former Vice-president Joe Biden, who is the nominee of the Democratic Party is polling ahead of the Republic nominee Donald Trump in key battlegrounds. Some of these grounds are the ones that made Donald Trump president in 2016. In Wisconsin, where Donald Trump won by a thin margin in 2016, the Democratic nominee is leading by 6 points. Florida has given nearly 4% points to Joe Biden and astonishingly, Joe Biden is also enjoying a narrow lead in Arizona where only one Democratic candidate was able to win in the past 70 years. A similar situation exists in the state of North Carolina. In Texas, the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s poll number is less than 5%, which suggests a close race between these two candidates.
It is worth mentioning at this point that while these polls can reflect the popularity of candidates they do not necessarily predict the election result. Having seen the poll numbers not let us move to surveys.
According to results from different surveys conducted in the United States of America, a large share of voters supports Biden against Trump. About 45% of the registered voters will support Trump while 53% will support Biden if the elections are conducted today. But, when it comes to the trust of voters on their candidates Trump takes the lead. 66% of Trump supporters say that they strongly back their candidates no matter what the odds, while 46% of the Biden’s think the same.
Additionally, when asked about the 2020 presidential Election results there was a slight difference between the percentages of voters who think Trump will land the victory. When registered voters were asked of their opinion that who will win the 2020 elections 50% of the participants answered that they believe Trump will land in the office for another term. $48% answered in favor of former Vice-President Joe Biden.
Once again the results are based on a survey and are not elections results so may not predict accurately. Moving forward we will see what Allan Lichtman and Helmut Norpoth have to say about the November race. It should be noted that both of these are election prediction experts and have predicted many of the previous US elections.
Allan Lichtman initially predicted a clear victory for Donald Trump but after the pandemic and civil unrest resulting from Floyd’s killing he changes the prediction and gave victory to Joe Biden. His prediction is based on his ‘Key to White House’ model in which Allan used 13 keys to predict the next US president. In 2000, Lichtman correctly predicted a victory for Al Gore, and Gore won the popular vote but lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ordered stop the recount of ballot cast in Florida. He also correctly predicted Trump’s impeachment.
Helmut Norpoth predicted a victory for Donald Trump. According to Norpoth’s statistical representation, Trump has 91% chances of re-election while Biden has only a 9% chance to land the victory. He has correctly predicted 5 of the last 6 presidential elections. In 2016 Norpoth predicted 87% chances for Trump’s victory. The only time he was wrong was 2000 elections where he predicted victory for Al Gore, and as already mentioned Al gore did win but failed to reach the White House.
To conclude the whole discussion, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden have a close race. Poll numbers show a lead to Biden and a confusing case exist with surveys. Prediction experts also hold various opinions. No one can say sure for now, but Trump has also lost a number of supporters and sponsors after the pandemic and civil unrest. Elections are just two months away and both candidates are putting all of their strength to become the next US President.