Understanding How Eurovision Odds Work in 2021

Who wins the Eurovision Song Contest 2021?

Odd unit: EU | UK | US

As the largest singing competition in Europe, Eurovision gets a lot of eyeballs and keeps stakeholders from all walks of life on the edge of their seats. Emotions run high as the drama surrounding contestants is full of twists and turns. Fans root for their favorite artists – while punters bet on their bottom line.  

Punters use Eurovision betting odds to determine the payout of a winning bet, along with how likely a predicted event is to happen. In general, low odds mean that an event is extremely likely to happen. Conversely, higher odds mean that an event is unlikely to happen.

Eurovision odds predict how likely a participant is to win the much-coveted Eurovision contest.  

Odds are used to calculate how much money you get back from winning, if you bet on one of the events. For obvious reasons, higher odds will grant you more winnings relative to your wager.

It is worth pointing out that odds are in a state of flux due to various factors. Let’s discuss 4 factors that influence those odds.

1. Public Betting Trends

Bookmakers are in the business of not losing money and will hedge their odds accordingly. They’re constantly analyzing trends and the wisdom of the crowd. These trends are usually outside of the average punter’s control. In general, if a lot of people place their bets on a specific artist or song, it’s considered to be a good bet.

In other words, the probability of a song winning is extremely high when you compare it to its expected payouts. Oddsmakers will quickly lower this song’s odds so that they don’t lose their money.

2. What Other Bookmakers Are Doing  

Bookmakers also analyze their competition to not only stay ahead of the curve but also judge trends more accurately. If another bookmaker suddenly lowers their odds on a song, it means that their customers bet more on the song, or perhaps the oddsmaker has access to insider information. This is why most bookmakers play it safe by learning from their competition instead of risking losing money. This phenomenon is known as the “Lemming Effect”.

3. Historical Statistics

Just like regular sports, historical statistics also influence how bookmakers price each artist’s song. For example, if a country has a record of winning at Eurovision, bookmakers will factor this when calculating the odds pricing. Based on history, the Netherlands is all the rage in Eurovision betting. 

4. Evaluation

Bookmakers evaluate the pros and cons of each artist as well as their song. For obvious reasons, there will be a great difference of opinion on what constitutes as good and what may be regarded as excellent. This judgment can be influenced by several factors, such as the music genre, type of song, and current trends.

About Eurovision

Eurovision was first established in 1956 with 43 countries sending their artists to represent their host country. Each entry gets a maximum of six people. The song must be performed under 3 minutes and should be released a certain number of months before the event. The song can be selected through an internal selection or a nationally televised selection.